WEEKLY TIP 
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Did any economist foresee payrolls expanding by just 38,000 jobs in May?
The median forecast compiled by MarketWatch projected a gain of 155,000, not the worst number since September 2010. The Department of Labor reduced March and April payroll gains by 59,000 in its new report, meaning monthly job creation averaged 116,000 in the past three months. As labor force participation declined 0.6% in May, the headline jobless rate fell to 4.7%. Annualized wage growth was at 2.5%.1,2
CONSUMERS FLEX THEIR PURCHASING POWER
In better news, personal spending rose 1.0% in April according to the Department of Commerce. This was the biggest monthly spending gain since August 2009. Personal incomes were up 0.4% in April as well.2,3
ONE OF TWO ISM PMIS IMPROVE
Both of the purchasing manager indices maintained by the Institute for Supply Management were above the 50 level in May, indicating sector growth. The upside? The manufacturing PMI improved 0.5 points to 51.3. The downside? The service sector PMI slipped 2.8 points to 52.9.2
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DIPS
Last month brought a decline in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch forecast a May reading of 96.7 for the index, yet it fell 2.1 points to 92.6 in its second straight monthly descent.2,3
NASDAQ ADVANCES, UNLIKE S&P & DOW
Immediately after the May jobs report, futures traders put the odds of a June interest rate hike under 10%. Even so, there was no rally at the end of a short trading week. While the Nasdaq rose 0.83% in four days, the S&P 500 was flat for the week (to be precise, it added 0.07 points) and the Dow lost 0.12%. The Friday settlements: DJIA, 17,807.06; S&P, 2,099.13; NASDAQ, 4,942.52.1,4
THIS WEEK:
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks on the economy and monetary policy Monday in Philadelphia; investors will also consider earnings from Casey’s General Stores and Thor Industries. Tuesday, Michaels and VeriFone report earnings. Wednesday, Lululemon Athletica presents Q1 results. Thursday offers quarterly results, plus the latest initial claims numbers, from H&R Block and J.M. Smucker. The University of Michigan’s preliminary June consumer sentiment index appears Friday.
% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +2.19 -1.49 +9.31 +5.83
NASDAQ -1.30 -3.07 +16.17 +12.27
S&P 500 +2.70 -0.71 +12.29 +6.29
REAL YIELD 6/3 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.19% 0.55% 0.75% 2.37%
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 6/3/165,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
Citations.
1 – forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2016/06/03/jobs-report-u-s-adds-just-38000-jobs-in-may-unemployment-rate-down-to-4-7/ [6/3/16]
2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [6/3/16]
3 – usatoday.com/story/money/business/2016/05/31/economy-consumer-spending-personal-income/85182502/ [5/31/16]
4 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [6/3/16]
5 – markets.wsj.com/us [6/3/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F3%2F15&x=0&y=0 [6/3/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F3%2F15&x=0&y=0 [6/3/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F3%2F15&x=0&y=0 [6/3/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F3%2F11&x=0&y=0 [6/3/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F3%2F11&x=0&y=0 [6/3/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F3%2F11&x=0&y=0 [6/3/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F2%2F06&x=0&y=0 [6/3/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F2%2F06&x=0&y=0 [6/3/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F2%2F06&x=0&y=0 [6/3/16]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/3/16]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/3/16]
MAY SAW WEAKEST JOB GROWTH IN 5+ YEARS
Topics: Weekly Economic Update
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